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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Noah Gray has been more heavily used in his offense's passing offense.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.

Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 83.2% to 69.0%.

This year, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded a puny 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-best rate in the NFL.

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