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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -107.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Noah Gray's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 11.3.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.

Noah Gray's 59.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a a material decline in his receiving talent over last year's 83.2% rate.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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