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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.3%) versus tight ends this year (77.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.8 per game) this year.

Noah Gray's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 83.2% to 71.6%.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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