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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

The Raiders pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.5%) vs. tight ends this year (78.5%).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 83.2% to 79.5%.

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