Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:36 AM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Gray's 49.0% Route Participation Rate this year shows a noteable growth in his passing game usage over last year's 38.1% figure.
This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been torched for a whopping 81.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.
The Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Noah Gray's 74.6% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 83.2% figure.

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