Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+136/-179).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Noah Gray's 11.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (80.3%) vs. tight ends this year (80.3%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.4% to 65.6%.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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