Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-455/+310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +340 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +310.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (38.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (18.7%).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 66.0% to 83.1%.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) vs. TEs this year (67.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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