Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 4.2.
Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 66.0% to 81.6%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) versus TEs this year (67.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.