Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has been used less as a potential target this year (33.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (19.8%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has allowed their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) vs. TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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