Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
Noah Gray has notched a whopping 20.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Noah Gray's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 15.0.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.