Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 8:11 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.
Noah Gray ranks in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs this year with a massive 9.2% of his team's air yards accumulated.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the imposing Chargers pass defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 2.9 YAC.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 9th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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