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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Noah Gray has accounted for a staggering 8.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This year, the formidable Bills defense has allowed a measly 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-fewest in the league.

This year, the stout Bills defense has allowed the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a paltry 6.6 yards.

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