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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Noah Gray's 54.2% Route Participation Rate this year illustrates a substantial growth in his pass game workload over last year's 38.1% rate.

Noah Gray has notched significantly more air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).

Noah Gray's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this year, notching 8.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 5.54 mark last year.

This year, the anemic Broncos defense has conceded a monstrous 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Broncos, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.

Noah Gray's 70.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a remarkable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 83.2% rate.

Noah Gray's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 7.82 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.14 figure last year.

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