Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
After accruing 11.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Gray has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 22.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Noah Gray has been more heavily used in his offense's passing offense.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 83.2% to 69.0%.
Noah Gray's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 7.83 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.14 rate last season.
This year, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded a puny 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-best rate in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.21 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.