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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Noah Gray has compiled significantly more air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).

Noah Gray's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 11.3.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.

Noah Gray's 59.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a a material decline in his receiving talent over last year's 83.2% rate.

Noah Gray's 7.5 adjusted yards per target this season marks a a noteable decrease in his receiving skills over last season's 9.1 rate.

The Vikings defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 29.0) to TEs this year.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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