Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Noah Gray has been among the leading tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 88th percentile.
The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 83.2% to 73.5%.
Noah Gray's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating just 7.57 yards-per-target compared to a 9.14 figure last year.
The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.

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