Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
After averaging 11.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Gray has shown good development this season, now pacing 18.0 per game.
Noah Gray checks in as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging an excellent 8.60 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 88th percentile.
With an outstanding 6.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (86th percentile) this year, Noah Gray stands as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL in the open field.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 6th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.31 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Noah Gray's 78.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 83.2% rate.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

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