Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Noah Gray has been used less as a potential target this year (48.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (38.1%).
After averaging 11.0 air yards per game last year, Noah Gray has undergone big improvement this year, now sitting at 19.0 per game.
With an impressive 8.6 adjusted yards per target (89th percentile) this year, Noah Gray rates among the top tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.
With an excellent 6.52 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (87th percentile) this year, Noah Gray has been among the leading pass-catching TEs in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
Noah Gray's 77.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 83.2% figure.
The Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.7%) versus tight ends this year (69.7%).

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