Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has notched many more air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (2.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Noah Gray's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 62.8%.
Noah Gray has been among the least effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a lowly 5.50 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) versus TEs this year.

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