Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has totaled far more air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (2.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 11.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Noah Gray's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.4% to 50.1%.
Noah Gray has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.73 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 27.0) vs. tight ends this year.

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