Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Noah Gray has totaled many more air yards this year (13.0 per game) than he did last year (2.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 12.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Noah Gray has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (4.0).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in football (63.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Gray's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 52.1%.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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