Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:25 AM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Noah Gray has been among the weakest TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 8.0 yards per game while ranking in the 10th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Gray's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.4% to 59.5%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, giving up 6.99 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.21 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.