Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (63.0) to TEs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Noah Gray has been among the bottom pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.0 yards per game while ranking in the 2nd percentile among TEs.
Noah Gray's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 62.4%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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