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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+370/-590).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +370.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Noah Gray has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (38.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (18.7%).

Noah Gray has accrued significantly more air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) vs. TEs this year (67.9%).

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency against tight ends this year, conceding 7.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.

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