Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
Noah Gray has notched quite a few more air yards this year (13.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 4.2.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.