Noah Gray Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 4, 2022 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+414/-908).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +433 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +414.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Gray has totaled many more air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 4.2.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 6th-least passing TDs in the league to TEs: 0.18 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.