Noah Gray Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1005).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -894 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1005.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has compiled significantly more air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (2.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 12.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has allowed their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) vs. TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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