Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-157/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +123 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Fant's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 78.4% to 91.9%.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (only 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.3 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Noah Fant has been relied on much less in his team's air attack.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (66.5%).

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