Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a heavy -7-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 56.0 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Noah Fant has been relied on much less in his offense's air attack.
Noah Fant's 1.9 adjusted catches per game this year conveys an impressive regression in his receiving skills over last year's 2.9 figure.
This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a paltry 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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