Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-101/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 3.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 17.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Noah Fant's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 76.6% to 82.5%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.