Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an impressive 78.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Fant's 24.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 37.1.
Noah Fant's receiving talent has declined this season, compiling just 2.9 yards per game compared to 4.2 last season.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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