Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to notch 4.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack this week (13.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.5% in games he has played).

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