Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Fant has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 11.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has accrued a colossal 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the top TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 29.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
The Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.73 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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