Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive -9.5-point underdog this week.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seattle Seahawks.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Noah Fant's 9.7 adjusted yards per target this year shows a significant gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 7.6 rate.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.
After accruing 25.0 air yards per game last year, Noah Fant has undergone a big decline this year, now pacing 16.0 per game.
Noah Fant's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 24.6.
The Cowboys pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Dallas's group of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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