Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a heavy -7-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Noah Fant's pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, totaling 9.46 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.62 mark last season.
Noah Fant's talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 7.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 5.30 mark last season.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 56.0 plays per game.
After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Fant has fallen off this season, currently pacing 15.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Noah Fant has been relied on much less in his offense's air attack.
This year, the imposing 49ers defense has allowed a meager 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-best in football.

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