Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 3.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 17.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant has compiled a monstrous 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant has been among the top TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 38.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Noah Fant's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 4.94 yards-per-target compared to a 7.41 rate last season.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.

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