Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an impressive 78.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Fant has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant's 24.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 37.1.
Noah Fant has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 6.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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