Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 5.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.1 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this season (12.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
Noah Fant has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) vs. TEs this year (67.9%).

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