Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to total 4.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an impressive 78.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
Noah Fant's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this year, notching 6.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 4.10 mark last year.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 8th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this season (12.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
Noah Fant has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).

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