Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+318/-583).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -568 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -583.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Noah Fant has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 76.6% to 81.0%.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.
Noah Fant has notched far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 37.1.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) to tight ends this year (68.3%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 7th-least passing TDs in football to TEs: 0.17 per game this year.

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