Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+321/-593).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +335 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +321.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Noah Fant's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 76.6% to 80.6%.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (79.7%) versus TEs this year (79.7%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 4th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.60 per game this year.

Favors Under

Noah Fant has put up quite a few less air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 37.1.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.