Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 5, 2022 11:05 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-950).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (13.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Noah Fant has accrued a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
Noah Fant's 19.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 37.1.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (62.0%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the least passing TDs in the NFL to tight ends: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.

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