Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-937).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -864 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -937.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Noah Fant has compiled a monstrous 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant's 35.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 89th percentile for tight ends.
Noah Fant's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 76.6% to 82.5%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 7th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.47 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be a less important option in his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (16.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.7% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.