Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+318/-582).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -576 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -582.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.60 per game this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Noah Fant has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant's 25.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 37.1.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.