Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-424).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +314 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +251.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Noah Fant has accumulated a monstrous 35.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant's 37.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for tight ends.
Noah Fant ranks in the 77th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (15.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.2% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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