Noah Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-124/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.5%) vs. wideouts this year (71.5%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

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