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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 136.0 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The leading projections forecast Noah Brown to total 6.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Noah Brown's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 34.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.0% pass rate.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

The Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (54.4%) vs. wideouts this year (54.4%).

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Cleveland's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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