Noah Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-171/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -168 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (86.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (30.5%).
Noah Brown's receiving skills have been refined this year, accumulating 3.4 yards per game vs a mere 1.7 last year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.5%) vs. WRs this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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