Noah Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (21.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.