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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.

Noah Brown has been used less as a potential target this season (81.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (29.7%).

Noah Brown's pass-catching performance gotten better this season, totaling 3.2 yards per game compared to a mere 1.7 last season.

The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (69.6%) versus WRs this year (69.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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